I think I need a break.
Dear Don,
I was amused by your wife’s recent theological argument that in the afterlife there is only Heaven, no Hell – we’re living in Hell at present. And looking around, she might be right: there are wars in Ukraine, Iran, and virtually all around Israel; there are lawless areas around the world which meet my vision of Hell, for sure.
But what makes it all so depressing is that so many key world leaders are doing their best to make things worse, not better. Russia has all but declared war on the UK, and there’s actually a school of thought that says World War Three has already begun. That war is not an all-out conflagration; that’s too hazardous even for Putin and the Russians. Instead, Putin’s plan has been to fight what’s being known as a ‘hybrid’ war: cyber-warfare, driving wedges between western states, attacking infrastructure, and assassinations. Much of its dirty work is carried out by paid third parties, individuals and states such as Iran, which gives Putin and the Russian government deniability.
What’s made this so effective has been Putin’s manipulation of Donald Trump. He in turn has been able to manipulate his own support base, a sizeable chunk of the US population, to view Russia less as an enemy and more as a helpful friend. Personally, I’m convinced that Russia attempted to put Trump into the White House in the 2016 Election. (The evidence is overwhelming, in fact, that five key swing states were targeted on behalf of Russia to vote for Trump. Once again, a third party was employed, ironically the British firm Cambridge Analytica.) Of course it’s very much in Putin’s interests to weaken the Western alliances, the European Union (Brexit) and NATO. Trump’s entire second term in office has been marked by threats to withdraw from the latter, in fact.
And now Trump’s fractious relationship with President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has once again erupted. Ukraine, in case you were misled somehow by the US media, was invaded by Russia in spring 2022, and the two countries have been in a bloody stalemated war ever since. Russia’s not under threat – it’s too big – although Putin has so far sent an estimated half a million Russians to their needless deaths. But Ukraine needs to be able to defend itself, which requires technology, and Trump’s latest blows in favour of Russia and against Ukraine have been to disrupt the Starlink defence technology on which the Ukrainian military depends. Meanwhile, he’s breaking his own sanctions laws by striking a deal with Putin to import much-needed Russian diesel. With the mid-terms coming, he wants to lower pump prices but Putin is delighted; oil revenues fund the Ukraine war. And it won’t make much difference to oil prices anyway. The real oil shortages are down to that other Trump folly, the unwinnable war in the Middle East against Iran.
There’s long been a belief in the UK that somewhere in Donald Trump’s past he’s done something that means Putin can effectively blackmail him. It’s credible: Trump has mixed with some shady characters in his business past. He cut corners, his businesses have filed for bankruptcy on multiple occasions, he’s had relationships with porn stars, and of course he’s a convicted felon. Most of the world would argue that what he did on January 6th 2021 amounted to treasonable insurrection. But had Mark Anthony been around, he’d have assured us that “Trump is an honourable man.”
So how does this affect us in the United Kingdom? We’re realists. We’ve given up on the United States as a reliable ally, and we understand that defence suddenly has to become our number one priority. If we’re fighting a (sort of) war, we have to win it. That costs money. I’ve no doubt taxes will rise, benefits will be cut, and services will decline in other areas. But it’s a small price to pay, and we’re the lucky ones. Thanks to this new Putin-Trump axis of evil, many more people are dying, homeless, hungry and living in fear.
Till the next time,
Gordon





